It won't be because the Patriots shot themselves in the foot. There's no way on God's muddy earth the Pats are losing to the Bills today.

That's not what they do in December.

When it comes to must-win games, few teams have been better than the Pats over the last decade. When it comes to must-win DECEMBER games, forget about it. The Pats are practically unbeatable.

One of the NFL's great stats is the Patriots' December record since 2003. When the games get toughest and the weather gets coldest, the Pats ascend to the top of the pack.

Following last week's annihilation of the Cardinals, Bill Belichick and the Pats are now 23-2 in December over the past five years, good for an otherworldly .920 winning percentage.

That's by far the best record in the NFL. The Chargers are the only other team to win 20 December games in that span, and they're 20-6.

``November and December are always when you have to play your best ball,'' said corner Ellis Hobbs. ``You think about when the season starts and how there are so many front-runners and you think about all those teams that started out so well in the beginning and have fallen off at the end. You just have to take it for what it is and just keep playing ball and just hope for the best.''

One of those former front-runners is Buffalo. The Bills started the season 4-0 and talk up north centered around not only the Bills' first playoff berth since Doug Flutie was taking snaps in 1999, but the inevitable Super Bowl appearance that was certain to follow behind quarterback Trent Edwards, running back Marshawn Lynch and receiver Lee Evans.

The Bills have gone 3-8 since, at least partly undone by an Edwards concussion that impacted him in a number of games before a sore groin knocked him out for two weeks in favor of turnover-happy J.P. Losman.

Now they're left with the hope of playing spoiler for a Patriots team that doesn't lose in December when the games matter.

``We don't really look at ourselves as spoilers,'' Evans said. ``It's just our last opportunity to play this year, play as a team together, and we're really excited about it. And it's against the team that's been at the top of our division for some time. So it's a great opportunity for us to come out and see what we've got at the end of the season.''

As has been the case since Belichick arrived in 2000, the Patriots are playing their best Football at the end of the year.

Midway through the season they were having trouble scoring without Tom Brady, but then Matt Cassel found his sea legs and the Pats began pouring on the points. They've reached 47 points three times in their last five games, including against the division-leading Dolphins.

``When we played them earlier in the year I thought they were an outstanding Football team,'' Bills coach Dick Jauron said. ``Obviously I think their quarterback is a lot more comfortable, which is to be expected. He's been in the league a number of years and he's experienced all of the off-the-field work and the classroom work so he clearly looks like he knows exactly what he wants to do with it, but it's different when it gets on the field. We're going to have to play at a very, very high level to stay in this game with them.''

Odds are, whatever they come up with today isn't going to be good enough. The Patriots have won 10 straight against Buffalo and haven't lost to them in the final month of the season since 1999.

Neither streak is going to end today. That's not what the Patriots do in December.

- jtomase?@bostonherald.com

BOX: CHECKLIST: John Tomase breaks down today's matchup:

DEFENSE: Patriots

SPECIAL TEAMS: Patriots and Bills

PASSING: Patriots

RUSHING: Patriots

COACHING: Patriots

THE SKINNY: The Patriots don't lose must-win games in December.

SCORE: Patriots 35, Bills 14

BOX: SCOUTING REPORT: Patriots AT Bills:

TODAY -- 1 p.m., Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.

TV/RADIO -- Ch. 4 (Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf); WBCN-FM 104.1 (Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti)

THE RECORDS -- The Patriots are 10-5, tied with the Dolphins atop the AFC East. The last place Bills are 7-8, three games behind.

THE LINE -- Patriots by 6 1/2 (over-under: 42 1/2 points)

RECORDS VS. SPREAD -- Patriots 8-7; Bills 7-8

SERIES HISTORY -- Thehave owned the Bills this decade, having won 10 straight and 15 of past 16 meetings dating to 2000. Since the Bills won, 31-0, in the 2003 opener, they've been outscored, 308-96, over past 10 meetings and not scored more than 17 points in a game.

Patriots OFFENSE -- No. 4 overall (373.7 yards per game); No. 7 rushing (140.7 ypg) No. 10 passing (233.1 ypg).

Bills OFFENSE -- No. 25 overall (307.1 ypg), No. 16 rushing (112.1 ypg); No. 20 passing (195.0 ypg).

Patriots DEFENSE -- No. 10 overall (311.2 ypg); No. 12 vs. rush (104.1 ypg); No. 15 vs. pass (207.1 ypg).

Bills DEFENSE -- No. 20 overall (331.7 ypg); No. 19 vs. rush (118.5 ypg); No. 16 vs. pass (213.2 ypg).

BOX: FIVE THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY:

And so it comes down to this. The Patriots must beat the Bills today to have any shot at the postseason, and it's hard to picture them losing. Bill Belichick-coached teams simply do not drop must-win games in December. They're 23-2 since 2003 and this one definitely qualifies as a must-win. The Bills, meanwhile, have been playing the role of spoilers pretty capably, taking the Jets to the wire and then knocking off the Broncos.

Here are five things to look for this afternoon:

1. Double down Trent

The Patriots have owned the Bills recently in part because quarterback J.P. Losman just didn't have a chance against them. Trent Edwards is a different animal. The youngster out of Stanford led the Bills to their 4-0 start and if not for a concussion in Week 5, might have kept them in the playoff picture. Though he continued playing, he wasn't the same and the Bills lost six of eight before he sat out losses against the Dolphins and Jets. He finally looked like himself against the Broncos last week, completing 17-of-25 with a touchdown. A big game from Edwards is probably Buffalo's only chance of winning.

2. Jump on 'em early

The Raiders and Cardinals discovered what happens when the Patriots race out to three-touchdown leads. The Pats control the clock with a power running game and unleash a defense that becomes more difficult to exploit when the Pats are able to attack and not concern themselves with stopping the run. The Broncos let the Bills hang around last week despite totaling more than 500 yards of offense. The Patriots must finish their early chances and break Buffalo's spirit.

3. Return to sender

The Patriots haven't always been airtight this year in covering the return game -- just ask Leon Washington or Justin Miller -- and the Bills boast one of the best in the business in punt returner Roscoe Parrish, who leads the league with an average of 15.3 yards a return. Parrish is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. The Patriots have played the field-position game very well this year, but Parrish can turn things in a hurry.

4. Is he a cover Corner?

Wes Welker's skills need no further amplification. The Pro Bowler is the best slot receiver in the game and works the middle of the field like an expert mine sweeper. He'll likely be matched up with rookie Reggie Corner, who last week locked horns with Denver's Brandon Stokley, a decent slot man himself. Stokley caught only three passes for 32 yards, though he managed to beat Corner with some double moves. Corner was up to the challenge when it mattered, knocking away a potential winning pass in the final minute. He's in for a whole new challenge against Welker.

5. Peters, Peters, defensive end eater

The right side of the Patriots defensive line will be in flux with Richard Seymour sidelined by a back injury. Don't be surprised if the Pats offer a healthy dose of Jarvis Green in his place. Green has yet to record a sack, and it's hard to imagine him being shut out for the season. Green could be matched up with Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (doubtful, knee), who earned his nod on reputation as much as anything else following a training camp holdout. Peters or backup Demetrius Bell could nevertheless be attacked. - JOHN TOMASE